US Presidential Election 2024 Results: 11 reasons why Kamala Harris lost badly 2024 年美国总统选举结果：卡玛拉·哈里斯惨败的 11 个原因

In the end, it wasn’t close at all. Donald Trump swept all seven swing states, easily paving the way to the White House. Polls had suggested a neck-and-neck race, but Harris performed even worse than Joe Biden in every county. Trump's triumph signals the end of the liberal order established with Barack Obama’s presidency in 2008, which saw Democrats dominate the narrative and shape much of American culture, from the media to Hollywood. Now, with Donald Trump – a convicted felon who spent 40 minutes of a rally dancing to music and spent one discussing a golfer's junk – back in the White House, the tables have turned. Trump achieved numerous firsts, including becoming the first president since Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms and dismantling the so-called "Blue Wall." He also made deep in-roads with numerous minority voters, those who don't vote traditionally for Democrats.

最终，选举根本不是那么接近。唐纳德·特朗普横扫了七个摇摆州，轻松地为白宫铺平了道路。民意调查显示这是一场势均力敌的竞争，但哈里斯在每个县的表现都比乔·拜登更糟糕。特朗普的胜利标志着 2008 年巴拉克·奥巴马总统建立的自由秩序的终结，当时民主党主导了叙事并塑造了美国文化的大部分，从媒体到好莱坞。现在，唐纳德·特朗普——一个被判有罪的罪犯，在集会上花了 40 分钟跳舞，花了 1 分钟讨论高尔夫球手的私处——重返白宫，局势已经逆转。特朗普实现了许多第一，包括成为自格罗弗·克利夫兰以来第一位非连续任期的总统，并拆除了所谓的“蓝色壁垒”。他还与众多少数族裔选民建立了深厚的关系，这些人传统上并不为民主党投票。
1) No Time to Prepare
1) 没有时间准备
Planning a presidential campaign in just four months was a tall order, and Harris, stuck with Biden’s team, struggled to articulate her message. She was forced to reverse positions on key policies, including those on illegal immigration and gender-affirming care, which eroded public confidence.
在仅仅四个月内策划总统竞选是一项艰巨的任务，哈里斯被困在拜登团队中，难以表达她的信息。她被迫在关键政策上改变立场，包括非法移民和性别确认护理政策，这削弱了公众的信心。
2) Interview Doom Loop 2) 面试死亡循环

Initially, Harris refused interviews, leading polls by 3.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. Silicon Valley investor David Sacks warned she could fall into a “doom loop”: as her ratings dropped, she’d be forced to give more interviews, further harming her standing. This proved true, with her ratings plummeting from 3.6 to 1.4 points just before Election Day. In interview after interview, she failed to even articulate what she would do differently from
最初，哈里斯拒绝接受采访，在 FiveThirtyEight 的民调平均中领先 3.6 个百分点。硅谷投资者大卫·萨克斯警告说，她可能会陷入“恶性循环”：随着她的评分下降，她被迫接受更多采访，进一步损害她的形象。这被证明是正确的，她的评分在选举日前从 3.6 个百分点暴跌至 1.4 个百分点。在一场又一场的采访中，她甚至无法表达出她将如何与以往不同的做法。Joe Biden.  拜登
Read: 11 reasons Trump won
阅读：特朗普获胜的 11 个原因
3) MSM's Trump Derangement Syndrome
3) MSM 的特朗普狂热症
The media's role should be to inform the public, yet, over the past eight years, mainstream outlets have been preoccupied with attacking Trump. They frequently distorted facts, as seen when they misinterpreted Trump’s comment about Liz Cheney claiming she threatened her with violence rather than critiquing her “war hawk” views. The MSM's reality distortation got to dissonant that a huge chunk of the country simply stopped believing anything they read. Even comedy shows leaned into anti-Trump narratives, reinforcing biases rather than fostering critical discourse. And they also committed the worst crime of all time, not even being funny. While the idea of journalistic neutrality was preposterous, the Trump Dergangement Syndrome meant that mainstream media simply left the field for people to use other media like X.
媒体的角色应该是向公众提供信息，然而，在过去八年里，主流媒体一直忙于攻击特朗普。他们经常歪曲事实，就像当他们误解特朗普关于利兹·切尼的评论时，声称她威胁要对她使用暴力，而不是批评她的“鹰派”观点。主流媒体的现实扭曲变得如此之大，以至于这个国家的一大块人停止相信他们所读到的任何东西。甚至喜剧节目也倾向于反特朗普的叙事，强化偏见而不是培养批判性讨论。而且，他们也犯下了所有时间中最严重的罪行，甚至都不好笑。虽然新闻业中立的想法是荒谬的，但特朗普的“反特朗普综合症”意味着主流媒体只是让位给人们使用像 X 这样的其他媒体。
Trump's victory would be an important moment for America's mainstream media to introspect the huge dissonance between reality and the reality they offer.
特朗普的胜利将是美国主流媒体反思现实与他们提供的现实之间巨大分歧的重要时刻。
4) Rise of New Media
4) 新媒体兴起
With mainstream media missing the mark, alternative platforms have gained prominence, allowing people to judge Trump independently. Platforms like X, owned by Trump ally Elon Musk, and podcasts such as The Joe Rogan Experience have helped Trump redefine his image, distancing him from labels like “fascist” and “bigot.” In today’s media landscape, where figures like Joe Rogan hold as much influence as major celebrities, Trump’s alternative media appearances have countered the negative portrayals from traditional outlets and when people watched him speak for three hours on Rogan or with Andy Schulz on the Flagrant Podcast, they couldn't find the dictator or fascist that MSM had warned them about.
随着主流媒体失准，替代平台获得了突出地位，使人们能够独立评判特朗普。由特朗普盟友埃隆·马斯克拥有的平台如 X，以及像《乔·罗根体验》这样的播客，都有助于特朗普重新定义自己的形象，让他远离“法西斯”和“种族主义者”等标签。在今天的媒体格局中，乔·罗根等人物的影响力与主要名人相当，特朗普在替代媒体上的出现抵消了传统媒体的负面描绘。当人们观看他在罗根或与安迪·舒尔茨在《肆无忌惮播客》上连续三小时的讲话时，他们找不到主流媒体警告他们的独裁者或法西斯主义者。

5) Sub-standard Surrogates
5) 不合格替代品
As Harris’s ratings dipped, her surrogates grew desperate. Hillary Clinton likened a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden to a Nazi gathering, while Obama admonished Black men for not backing Harris. Over the years, the idea has gathered steam that the Dem party takes Black voters for granted, as evidenced by a Michael Joke on SNL where he joked: "Without Black voters, the Democratic Party would be the Democratic Small Get Together." Liz Cheney failed to convice moderates to vote for Harris, as did Barbara Bush.
随着哈里斯的支持率下降，她的代理人变得越来越绝望。希拉里·克林顿将特朗普在麦迪逊广场花园的集会比作纳粹集会，而奥巴马则谴责黑人男子没有支持哈里斯。多年来，人们普遍认为民主党党派把黑人选民视为理所当然，正如在 SNL 上迈克尔·乔克的一个笑话中所示：“没有黑人选民，民主党将变成民主党小聚会。”莉兹·切尼未能说服温和派为哈里斯投票，芭芭拉·布什也是如此。
At the last moment, a plethora of celebrity endorsements made the Harris campaign look faux, particularly when Beyonce turned up and didn't perform or Cardi B forget her lines. Vance was a far more realiable VP pick than Walz, whose lack of national exposure was starkly contrasted against Vance in the only debate they went up against.
在最后一刻，众多名人的支持让哈里斯竞选活动看起来很做作，尤其是当碧昂丝出现却没有表演，或者卡迪 B 忘了台词。范斯比沃尔茨是一个更可靠的副总统人选，他们在唯一一次辩论中与范斯对抗，沃尔茨缺乏全国性的曝光度与范斯形成了鲜明对比。
On the the other hand, Team Trump this time was very carefully handpicked to buttress his weaker points. Trump, while a champion of retail politics, has always subpar on details. For that he had JD Vance, who left interviwers twisted after three hours with his smug logic. In Vivek Ramaswamy, Trump had a surrogate who not only countered his white supremacist stance but could debate a person without belittling them including crazy white evangelicals.
另一方面，这次特朗普团队被非常仔细地挑选出来来加强他的弱点。特朗普虽然是一位零售政治的冠军，但在细节上一直表现不佳。为此，他有了 JD Vance，他的自鸣得意的逻辑让采访者在三个小时后都感到困惑。在 Vivek Ramaswamy 身上，特朗普找到了一个代理人，他不仅反驳了他的白人至上主义立场，而且在与他人辩论时不会贬低对方，包括疯狂的白色福音派信徒。
RFK Jr and Tulsi Gabbard, Jungian archetypes who appeal to people on their own accord, meanwhile being former Dems who gave an insider's view on what went wrong with the party.
RFK Jr.和图尔西·加巴德，是具有自身魅力的荣格原型，同时作为前民主党人，他们对党内出了什么问题提供了内部视角。
6) Trump Minority Outreach
6) 特朗普少数族裔拓展
Trump extended his reach to minority groups. His pro-business stance and ties with Indian PM Narendra Modi appealed to conservative Indian Americans. Among African Americans, he capitalised on frustrations with the Democratic Party, drawing young Black men with promises of economic opportunity. Endorsements from Arab American leaders in Michigan boosted his support, particularly among those critical of US involvement in the Middle East. His Hispanic support, though somewhat affected by a Puerto Rican joke, grew due to his positions on economic issues, immigration, and crime.
特朗普扩大了对少数族裔的影响力。他支持商业的立场与印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的关系吸引了保守的印第安美国人。在非裔美国人中，他利用对民主党不满的情绪，通过承诺经济机会吸引年轻的黑人男性。密歇根州阿拉伯裔美国领导人的支持提高了他的支持率，尤其是在那些批评美国在中东介入的人中。尽管他的西班牙裔支持者受到了波多黎各笑话的影响，但由于他在经济问题、移民和犯罪问题上的立场，他的支持率仍然有所增长。
And Dems forgot that the economy affects everyone including minorities. On the other hand, Harris' minority outreach appeared to be vacillating between different accents, trying to scare women about abortion and using crypto, loans and marijuana to reach out to Black men. This was evidenced by Harris getting fewer votes than Biden with every demographic.
民主党忘了经济影响每个人，包括少数族裔。另一方面，哈里斯的少数族裔接触似乎在不同口音之间摇摆不定，试图恐吓女性关于堕胎，并使用加密货币、贷款和大麻来接触黑人男性。这一点从哈里斯在每个群体中的得票数都低于拜登可以得到证明。
7) U-Turns on Major Policies and a "No Comment" Strategy
7) 对主要政策的 180 度大转弯和“不予评论”策略
Kamala Harris’s reluctance to commit to clear policy positions backfired. By avoiding firm stances on former progressive policies, she created an impression of evasiveness, which alienated voters. She was also seen as the "No Comment" candidate, one could win by not alienating voters. It was a rather hard sell though. For example, you can't claim to be the champion of recreational marijuana use when you have a history of locking up recreational marijuana users. In interview after interview, Harris was burdened by Biden's policy positions and failed to explain how her regime would be any different. Conversely, Trump’s direct, if polarising, policy positions won him a loyal base, securing a clear victory. Harris’s avoidance left her vulnerable to attacks, with voters gravitating toward a candidate with a more defined agenda.
哈里斯不愿明确表态的政策立场适得其反。通过避免对前任进步政策的坚定立场，她给人留下了回避的印象，这疏远了选民。她也被视为“不发表评论”的候选人，一个人可以通过不疏远选民而获胜。但这相当难推销。例如，当你有拘留娱乐大麻使用者的历史时，你不能声称自己是娱乐大麻使用的捍卫者。在一场又一场的采访中，哈里斯被拜登的政策立场所累，未能解释她的政府将有何不同。相反，特朗普直接、如果具有争议性的政策立场为他赢得了一群忠诚的支持者，确保了明确的胜利。哈里斯的回避使她容易受到攻击，选民纷纷转向一个更有明确议程的候选人。
8) MAGA Kulturkampf Triumph
8) MAGA 文化战争 胜利
MAGA hasn't just cannibalised the Conservative movement, it has also challenged the Democratic Party’s liberal world order. Issues like the trans movement and identity politics have alienated some traditional Democratic voters, and MAGA has reframed debates on immigration as conflicts between illegal immigrants and minority communities. This was evidenced in Harris' own behaviour who left behind many of her more progressive policies to become a 'moderate'.
MAGA 不仅吞噬了保守派运动，还挑战了民主党自由世界秩序。像跨性别运动和身份政治等问题使一些传统民主党选民感到疏远，MAGA 将移民问题的辩论重新定义为非法移民和少数族裔社区的冲突。这在哈里斯自己的行为中得到了体现，她放弃了更多进步政策，成为了一个“温和派”。
For normal people, there is no hesistancy in saying that men shouldn't participate in women's sports or that grown men - irrespective of how they identity - shouldn't use bathrooms. Nor should children be allowed to transistion without their parent's consent. It was a hard task, getting women to vote for Harris after spending so long not being able to define a woman. The MAGA messaging on these issues hit home and this electoral reversal will perhaps force the Dems to come back to normal centre.
对于普通人来说，说男人不应该参加女子运动，或者无论他们如何自我认同，成年男子都不应该使用洗手间，都没有犹豫。同样，也不应该允许孩子在没有父母同意的情况下进行性别转换。在花费了这么长时间无法定义女性之后，让女性为哈里斯投票是一项艰巨的任务。关于这些问题的 MAGA 信息触动了人心，这次选举的逆转可能会迫使民主党回归正常中心。
9) Reverse Swing in Swing States
9) 川州摇摆州的反向摇摆
Harris, much like Indian batsmen from the 90s, failed to deal with the swing. Of course, in Harris' case, it was the key swing states, losing ground that Joe Biden had previously held. Her failure to connect with working-class voters on issues like the economy and immigration cost her in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In Florida and Arizona, Harris’s appeal fell flat with Latino voters, who leaned towards Trump’s stances on jobs and border security. Her campaign’s missteps across these pivotal states led to a complete swing-state wipeout, blocking her path to victory.
哈里斯，就像 90 年代的印度板球手一样，未能应对球路的摆动。当然，在哈里斯的情况下，是关键的摇摆州失去了乔·拜登之前所持有的地盘。她在经济和移民等问题上未能与工人阶级选民建立联系，这在宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州等地让她付出了代价。在佛罗里达州和亚利桑那州，哈里斯对拉美裔选民的吸引力落空，他们更倾向于特朗普在就业和边境安全问题上的立场。她在这些关键州的一系列失误导致摇摆州全面失利，阻断了她的胜利之路。

10) The "DEI" Candidate  10) "DEI" 候选人
Kamala Harris’s ascension to the Democratic nomination had sparked criticism, with some labelling her a “DEI candidate” – suggesting her rise was due to diversity priorities over electoral support. This narrative cast doubt on her qualifications, overshadowing her roles as attorney general, senator, and vice president. Unlike Clinton - who powered through two bruising primaries - Harris was virtually given the nomination after Biden dropped out. VPs are often picked to complement the POTUS of the day. Becoming the main focus is a different matter. Republicans went out of their way to call her a DEI candidate, as they did for Tim Walz who they claimed was just their to counter Harris.
哈里斯晋升为民主党提名人的过程引发了批评，有些人称她为“DEI 候选人”——暗示她的崛起是由于对多样性的重视而非选举支持。这种说法质疑了她的资格，掩盖了她作为州总检察长、参议员和副总统的角色。与克林顿不同——她在两次激烈的初选中脱颖而出——哈里斯在拜登退出后几乎被授予提名。副总统通常被挑选出来补充当天的总统。成为主要焦点是另一回事。共和党不遗余力地称她为 DEI 候选人，就像他们为蒂姆·沃尔茨辩护一样，他们声称他只是用来对抗哈里斯的。
Her campaign, burdened by these assumptions, ultimately failed to resonate widely, underscoring the unique challenges faced by Black women in leadership, where their achievements are often undermined by questions around race and gender.
她的竞选活动，受到这些假设的拖累，最终未能广泛引起共鸣，凸显了黑人女性在领导中所面临的独特挑战，她们的成就常常受到关于种族和性别问题的质疑。
11) America won't vote for a woman
11) 美国不会为一名女性投票
There’s an unspoken reality within American politics, underscored by historical and present-day facts. The US has longstanding issues with racism and misogyny. Abraham Lincoln had to lead the country into a civil war to end slavery. It wasn’t until 1920 that women gained the right to vote, and only in 1965 were voting rights fully extended to all Black citizens. Jim Crow laws continued to suppress Black rights across states well after the Civil War. The country has elected a Black president only once and has yet to see a female president.
美国政治中存在一种不言而喻的现实，由历史和现实事实所强调。美国长期存在种族主义和性别歧视问题。亚伯拉罕·林肯不得不领导国家进入内战以结束奴隶制。直到 1920 年，女性才获得投票权，而直到 1965 年，投票权才完全扩展到所有黑人公民。吉姆·克劳法律在南北战争之后很久仍在各州压制黑人权利。这个国家只选举过一位黑人总统，并且尚未看到女性总统。
For many American voters, possibly including Black voters, casting a ballot for a candidate who is both half-Indian and half-Black felt like a great leap—regardless of the opponent. Even in 2024, it was a bridge too far for America to cross.
对于许多美国选民来说，包括黑人选民，为一位既是半印度血统又是黑人血统的候选人投票，感觉像是一次巨大的飞跃——无论对手是谁。即使在 2024 年，这对美国来说也太过分了。